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China Economic Watch

This blog monitors ongoing developments in China's economy, analyzes the impact of policy changes, and informs readers about new PIIE research on China.

Recent Posts

China Chart of the Week: China’s Real Effective FX Appreciation in Perspective

by | January 23rd, 2015 | 05:12 pm

The renminbi depreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar in 2014, reversing a multi-year trend of appreciation. This depreciation has led some to question whether China has abandoned their policy of allowing the RMB to appreciate against the dollar. As we pointed out in our recent post reviewing the government’s foreign exchange and capital account […]

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China Chart of the Week: Deflationary Pressure Gathers Steam

by | January 15th, 2015 | 02:06 pm

China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently released data on the prices of 50 different industrial inputs.  The tracked products include: copper, chemicals, oil, coal, rice, and wood.  This data show the average price of these products over 10 days and compares them with average price of the previous 10 days.  And over the past 6 […]

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2014 Year-end Review of Exchange Rate and Capital Account Reforms

by | January 9th, 2015 | 12:52 pm

Key Takeaways from 2014 Several new policy changes were implemented including a widening of the currency trading band, the Shanghai-Hong Kong equity connect, and a loosening of controls on FX management for banks Increase in in/out bound direct investment quotas and the announcement of an individual foreign investment scheme A marked slow-down in reserve accumulation […]

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China Chart of the Week: Census Raises GDP

by | December 24th, 2014 | 05:40 pm

Last week China released the preliminary results of its third economic census and its impact on national economic statistics. The headline number was an increase for 2013 GDP level of 3.4% (RMB 1.9tr, USD 308bn), driven primarily by an upward revision and re-categorization in tertiary industries. A USD 308 billion revision, roughly equivalent to Malaysia and Singapore’s 2013 GDP, […]

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China Rebalancing Update – Q3 2014

by | December 17th, 2014 | 11:18 am

With all the relevant economic data out, we can now update our rebalancing indicators for the third quarter of 2014: 1. Urban Disposable Income Growing Faster than GDP The gap between GDP growth and urban disposable income growth expanded slightly in the third quarter of 2014. In real terms, GDP growth was 50 basis points […]

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Monday Readings about the Chinese Economy

by | December 15th, 2014 | 05:58 pm

With so many articles about China that came out on Friday and over the weekend, we collected a few that you will not want to miss: Economics Yesterday’s Lima agreement was inspired by the Obama-Xi deal from last month. We expressed hope about that deal in November. The New York Times reported: “the catalyst for the […]

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China Chart of the Week: China More Powerful than the EU?

by | December 12th, 2014 | 12:00 pm

Will China be more powerful that the EU within six years? Nearly six in ten Europeans think so, according to an EU-wide opinion poll from this year. While there are moderate differences between countries, there is not a single country were the majority of respondents believe that the EU will be stronger than China in […]

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Cleaning up Energy Consumption in China: The Nuclear Question

by and Kevin Stahler | December 11th, 2014 | 05:15 pm

Cleaning up Energy Consumption in China: The Nuclear Question China – now in the midst of a war on pollution – is actively seeking to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and slowdown carbon emissions. Last month, China announced two targets to increase the share of non-fossil energy sources from the current 10 percent to 15 […]

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CNOOC’s Offshore Energy Aspirations in the South China Sea

by | December 8th, 2014 | 07:00 am

This year has seen yet another series of flare ups in China-Vietnam tensions over oil exploration projects in the South China Sea.  Most dramatically, in May, a Chinese oil rig exploring area around the disputed Paracel Islands, sparked anti-China protests in Vietnam.  More recently, Vietnam and India’s October defense and oil exploration agreement has been […]

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At Long Last, A China-Australia FTA

by | December 4th, 2014 | 04:20 pm

Last month saw the agreement, in principle, for the conclusion of the China-Australia FTA (ChAFTA), nearly 10 years after the start of negotiations.  Hailed by Prime Minster Tony Abbott as “the most comprehensive agreement China has concluded with anyone,” ChAFTA does indeed appear to be groundbreaking.  In Bridging the Pacific, we analyzed China’s free trade […]

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