Pacific Forum Issues and Insights in 2014

January 3, 2015 7:00 AM

Want to review developments over the course of 2014 in East Asia? One way is to scan through Issues and Insights from the Pacific Forum. Among the Korea related postings: work by Brad Glosserman on extended deterrence, David Santoro and Ralph Cossa on how China and the US might cooperate on non-proliferation and nuclear security, and papers by a group of “young leaders” from Japan and Korea. If the region needs anything at the moment, closer cooperation between these two US allies is toward the top of the list. The organization also hosts the Sasakawa Peace Foundation Fellowship; information can be found at the Pacific Forum website www.pacforum.org.

We append the latest newsletter below:

PacNet #92A Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2014

Issues & Insights 2014

Issues & Insights is Pacific Forum’s monograph series, with volumes published on a monthly or bimonthly basis. These in-depth analyses cover a range of topics and are available for free at PacForum.org. The online version is available here.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 1

8th China-US Dialogue on Strategic Nuclear Dynamics by Ralph Cossa and David Santoro

Key findings of the 8th China-US Dialogue on Strategic Nuclear Dynamics that was held in Beijing on Nov. 4-5, 2013. The discussions covered nuclear doctrine and force modernization, nonproliferation challenges, missile defense, space cooperation, crisis management, and confidence-building measures, with break-out sessions on arms control verification and development of a space code of conduct.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 2

Thinking the Unthinkable on the Korean Peninsula: Nuclear North Korea & Reunification by M.J. Chung

In a speech to the Honolulu International Forum on Jan. 21, 2014, M.J. Chung argued for Korean reunification as a means to create enduring peace in the Asia-Pacific. Chung discussed nuclear North Korea, the efficacy of economic sanctions against Pyongyang, the possibility of a nuclear South Korea, South Korea-Japan relations, and the One-Korea policy.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 3

Myanmar and the Nonproliferation Regime: Sharing Perspectivesby Ralph Cossa, Brad Glosserman, and David Santoro

At the first Myanmar-US/UK Nonproliferation Dialogue in Yangon on Feb. 7-8, 2014, Myanmar, US, and UK experts, officials, military officers, and observers discussed security perspectives, threats posed by weapons of mass destruction, the nuclear nonproliferation regime, the biological and chemical nonproliferation regimes, the role of transparency and confidence-building measures, and implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1540.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 4

Rare Earth Elements: A Critical Strategic Resource in Asia by Elliot Brennan

In 2010, China temporarily halted shipments of rare earth elements (REE) to Japan following a diplomatic crisis. In Oct. 2012, after much instability in Sino-Japanese relations, India agreed to start exporting to Japan to support Tokyo’s REE-intensive tech industry. Today, greater resource sharing and cooperation between India, South Korea, and Japan aim to offset the production monopoly of China. However, with the bulk of production still in China, Beijing maintains a significant influence over high-tech manufacturing in Asia. Additional diplomatic crises, including between China and Japan, cannot be ruled out. This paper builds on research in the field of critical resources in Asia and explores how the use of natural resources is an instrument of foreign policy in Asia.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 5

Kim Jong-Un-Prepared: Allied Contingency Plans for Korean Peninsula Unification  by Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders

In Sept. 2013, a US-ROK-Japan Extended Deterrence Trilateral Dialogue was held at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. This report presents next-generation ideas on areas of cooperation in a North Korean contingency, including political integration of the two Koreas and the establishment of governance and rule of law on the Korean Peninsula, cooperation on humanitarian assistance and weapons of mass destruction operations, determining the complexities and legal procedures for the threshold of intervention, and how to deal with China.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 6

Forging Cooperation over Competition by Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders

Prioritizing mutual trust and win-win cooperation was the topic of the 9th General Conference of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific held in Beijing. In this report, Young Leaders discuss: 1) the ASEAN Defense Minister’s Meeting Plus; 2) humanitarian assistance and disaster relief cooperation in ASEAN; 3) the importance of regional economic integration and its potential to mitigate risks and conflicts; 4) the North Korean nuclear issue; and 5) science diplomacy to build trust in the South China Sea.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 7

Revisiting China's 'String of Pearls' Strategy by Virginia Marantidou

Proposed in the early 2000s by US researchers in response to Chinese investment in ports along the Indian Ocean littoral, the ‘string of pearls’ theory argues that China may be planning to develop naval bases in South Asia to support extended naval deployments. To date, there is little evidence of this. These same locations could serve as useful logistics support for the Chinese Navy, however, supporting a blue-water navy with less political cost. ‘Places with Chinese characteristics’ would affect the security calculus of India and the US in the region, as well as set a precedent, potentially for application in Europe.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 8

China and the Japan-US Alliance by Akio Takahara

In remarks delivered at the Japan-US Security Seminar: Public Panel Session at CSIS in Washington, DC on Mar. 21, 2014, Professor Takahara Akio discussed Chinese domestic politics, China’s maritime advancement, and implications of these factors for the US-Japan alliance. Takahara provided a Japanese perspective on a holistic, comprehensive approach to China, as well as recommendations for the Japan-US alliance.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 9

Paving the Way for a "New Type of Major Country Relations" by Ralph Cossa and David Santoro

Chinese Version

Report of the 8th China-US Dialogue on Strategic Nuclear Dynamics in Beijing on Nov. 4-5, 2013. Chinese and US experts, officials, military officers, observers, and Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders discussed strategic nuclear relations, current nonproliferation challenges, nuclear doctrines and force modernization, missile defense, space cooperation, and crisis management and confidence building measures. They also participated in in-depth sessions (conducted in small working groups) on the development of a space code of conduct and arms control verification.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 10

Japan-Korea: Working Together in East Asia and Beyond Japan by Japan-Korea Working Group, Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders

In summer of 2013, a small group of Young Leaders established a Japan-Korea Working Group to look at ways in which Japan and Korea can cooperate. This report includes five policy briefs, and includes recommendations in the following areas: enhanced Japan-Korea inter-parliamentary exchanges, improved security cooperation with a focus on deterrence against North Korea, contingency planning for unification of the Korean Peninsula, energy security, and counter-piracy.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 11

Strengthening US-China Nonproliferation & Nuclear Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific by David Santoro and Ralph Cossa

Nonproliferation and nuclear security are vital areas for US-China cooperation. The first “US-China Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security Dialogue” workshop, held in Washington, DC on June 26-27, 2014, gathered US and Chinese nuclear experts, scholars, and policymakers to discuss nuclear dangers, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review process, nonproliferation noncompliance, crisis management and nuclear-use prevention, nuclear security, as well as opportunities and challenges to enhance US-China cooperation in these domains.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 12

Substantial progress, but still further to go by Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders

Drawing on research presented at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation Fellows conference held in Washington, DC on Mar. 23-24, 2014, Young Leaders explored issues ranging from changes in Japan’s arms exports control policies to Asia-Pacific maritime cooperation. Each paper includes background and geopolitical context to facilitate an understanding of why each particular issue matters, along with policy recommendations to meet regional security challenges.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 13

Building Trust on the Korean Peninsula: An Assessment of Trustpolitik for Inter-Korean Relations by Stephanie Nayoung Kang

Amidst increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the Park administration took office in 2013 determined to build trust with the South Korean public, between the two Koreas, and among regional neighbors. This paper provides recommendations for the Park administration to better implement trustpolitik for building inter-Korean trust and cooperation. Kang argues that the Park administration needs to define trust in the inter-Korean context by explaining how inter-Korean trust can be measured, how trust is factored into the implementation of trustpolitik, and how trust between Seoul and Pyongyang can be established despite tensions.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 14

Changes in Japan Push the Alliance Forward by Brad Glosserman and David Santoro

Japanese version

US and Japanese experts, officials, military officers, observers, and Pacific Forum Young Leaders attended the 7th US-Japan Strategic Dialogue on July 25, 2014. A day of discussion deflated the hype surrounding many of the changes promulgated by the Abe government, while underscoring efforts to adapt the US-Japan alliance to changing national, regional, and global realities.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 15

Closing the Nonproliferation Gap by Carl Baker, David Santoro, andJohn Warden

This workshop on strategic trade controls in Taipei was held on Sept. 2-3, 2014. The group included participants and observers from 13 countries, all attending in their private capacities. Discussions focused on UN Security Council Resolution 1540 implementation and the four multilateral export controls regimes, the role of control lists and the interagency process in managing trade of strategic goods, regional organizations, implementation of strategic trade controls in free trade zones, good practices in detection and enforcement of strategic trade controls, and the economic impact of strategic trade controls.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 16

Respond and Restrain: Deterrence and Reassurance in Northeast Asia by Brad Glosserman

The second US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue was held in Maui on July 23-24, 2014. This dialogue explored ways to overcome the obstacles between Japan and the Republic of Korea and enhance cooperation with the United States. To push the envelope, senior participants from the three countries joined Pacific Forum Young Leaders in discussions and a table-top exercise designed to explore reactions to a nuclear contingency on the Korean Peninsula. The results were sobering and underscored the need for increased coordination and planning among the three governments to prepare for such a crisis in Northeast Asia.

Issues & Insights Vol. 14 – No. 17

Enhancing Nuclear Governance in the Asia Pacific by David Santoro and Carl Baker

At the Nuclear Energy Experts Group (NEEG) meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 29-30, 2014, specialists from 19 countries throughout the Asia-Pacific and beyond joined two days of off-the-record discussions on nuclear governance, the role of the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) process, gaps and limitations in nuclear governance, technical approaches to improving management of civilian nuclear activities, and regional approaches to improving nuclear safety and security governance.

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